The 2024-25 Premier League season has reached a critical stage with Liverpool leading the title race. After 32 matches, Liverpool hold a 13-point advantage over second-placed Arsenal, with 76 points to Arsenal’s 63. Nottingham Forest, a surprise contender, sit third with 57 points.
With six games remaining, the focus is on whether Arsenal or Nottingham Forest can close the gap and challenge Liverpool for the title. Our opinion is that they can’t but crazier things have happened. So it is best for us to analyze each team’s chances at the moment.
Liverpool
Liverpool are the clear favourites to win their second Premier League title and 20th top-flight crown, matching Manchester United’s record. The Opta supercomputer gives them a 95.8% chance of lifting the trophy, reflecting their consistent form under manager Arne Slot. They have lost just two times in the league this season, a 1-0 defeat to Nottingham Forest in September 2024 and recently to Fulham. Their attacking strength, led by Mohamed Salah, who has scored 27 league goals, and a solid defence conceding only 31 goals, has kept them dominant.
Liverpool need just six more points to secure the title, potentially as early as April 20 if Arsenal lose to Ipswich Town and Liverpool beat Leicester City. Their remaining fixtures include challenging away games against Leicester, Chelsea, and Arsenal, but their home matches against Tottenham and Crystal Palace are winnable. A strong goal difference (+43) further bolsters their position, making a collapse unlikely.
Arsenal
Arsenal, in second place, have a 10.9% chance of winning the title according to Opta. Their recent form has been inconsistent, with a 1-1 draw against Brentford and a 0-0 stalemate at Nottingham Forest following a loss to West Ham. These dropped points have widened the gap to Liverpool. Mikel Arteta’s side have struggled with injuries to key attackers like Bukayo Saka, Kai Havertz, and Gabriel Martinelli, limiting their scoring options.
Arsenal’s remaining fixtures include away games at Ipswich, Manchester United, and Liverpool, with home matches against Crystal Palace and Southampton. Their defensive record is the league’s best, conceding only 27 goals, but their attack has managed just 57 goals compared to Liverpool’s 74. To overtake Liverpool, Arsenal would need to win all their games while hoping Liverpool drop at least 13 points, a tall order given Liverpool’s form.
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest, third in the table, have defied expectations under Nuno Espirito Santo. Last season’s relegation candidates have secured 17 wins from 32 matches, but their title chances are slim at 0.01% per Opta. A recent 2-1 defeat to Aston Villa ended a six-game winning streak, leaving them 19 points behind Liverpool. Their upcoming fixtures include a crucial home game against Liverpool, followed by matches against Southampton, Bournemouth, and Fulham.
While their home form at the City Ground is strong, with only two losses this season, their squad lacks the depth to sustain a title challenge. Forest are more likely to focus on securing a historic Champions League spot than catching Liverpool.
Other teams, such as Chelsea (0.04%) and Manchester City (0.01%), are too far behind to contend. Liverpool’s lead, depth, and consistency make them the likely champions. Arsenal’s hopes depend on a miraculous Liverpool slump and their own perfect run, while Nottingham Forest’s challenge has faded. The title race appears to be Liverpool’s to lose.
